The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Entrance and Exit for Foreign Tourists Before and After Covid-19 in Indonesia

Dea Nasa Nuzulul Hikmah, Catur Sugiyanto

Abstract


The research aimed determine the rupiah exchange rate for foreign tourists and its effect on gross domestic product (GDP), before and after Covid-19. Data includes tourist visits, exchange rates, purchasing power and gross regional domestic product (GRDP). Data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares method and processed using the Eviews 12.  The ARIMA model was used to compare the AIC and SC values of the Least Squares method. Test results show exchange rate volatility has had a significant impact on tourists to Indonesia, both before and after Covid-19. The empirical results of the GARCH model show that the MYR, USD, CNY and SGD exchange rates show significant volatility, and influence the number of tourist visits. The AUD exchange rate analyzed using ARIMA shows a more stable impact. The stability and predictability of the exchange rate remains an important factor in supporting the growth of the tourism in Indonesia.


Keywords


International Tourists, Covid-19, gross domestic product, Exchange rate.

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/miceb.v2i0.731

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